FFWD REW

Calgary is up for grabs

Long a PC fortress city could determine election

Political observers say that for the first time in 40 years there are areas of the province that could realistically undergo a political overhaul.

If true it will certainly be different from past elections where declining voter turnout and decades of majority Progressive Conservative governments were the norm.

“It’s at the doors. People are paying a lot more attention than I’ve ever been aware of before” says Alberta Party Leader Glenn Taylor. “Overall I would categorize it as a growing awareness that there’s dissatisfaction with the current status quo.”

Taylor has reason to play up the public desire for “change” but political observers agree there is a shift underway.

Mount Royal University political scientist David Taras says rural Alberta long an incumbent stronghold could conceivably go to the Wildrose Party. Edmonton is difficult to predict with its tight three- and four-way races though he believes the NDP will do well there. That leaves Calgary to tip the balance in what he says is essentially a battle between the Progressive Conservatives and the Wildrose.

“The Tories have owned this town so if they lose it presuming the Wildrose will do well in rural Alberta you could lose the whole election here” he says.

Fellow MRU political commenter Duane Bratt emphasizes Calgary is the “clincher” because voters ready to abandon the Tories will turn to the Wildrose Party rather than to the left. He says Wildrose will benefit when conservative voters compare its campaign with that of the PCs. The Wildrose campaign is being led by Tom Flanagan the man responsible for orchestrating Stephen Harper’s rise to power.

“Wildrose has run a textbook campaign” says Bratt whereas he thinks the PCs are flailing. “There’s photo ops like Danielle (Smith) pouring a root beer; there she is with a cuddly animal; there she is on horseback. You know they run a very strong campaign…. What’s (Alison) Redford done? All sorts of promises but they’re not in a coherent package…. If you were to ask who’s the experienced party and who’s the newcomer based on this you would reverse the order.”

Whether the PCs and the left-wing parties are really that weak or the Wildrose Party that strong several Calgary ridings are host to unusually heated battles. Two are brand new: Calgary Hawkwood and Calgary South East. The outcomes in ridings like Calgary Currie Calgary Fish Creek Calgary Varsity and Calgary West are also unpredictable because there are no incumbents.

Liberal Party candidate Norval Horner is hoping to replace retiring Alberta Party MLA Dave Taylor in the revamped riding of Calgary Currie. He says the voter engagement he’s witnessed on the campaign trail is undeniable.

“They’re starting to really pay attention” Horner says of voters. “Alberta voters have been sleeping for a long time. And some of them are really waking up to the fact that their vote can make a difference this time.”

Horner says he’s not the only candidate who’s noticed the change and is compelled to work hard just to keep up with the pack.

“When we go to a mailbox where there’s a house that isn’t lived in you can often see a brochure from both the NDP and the Alberta Party. One of my campaign managers says if parks and boulevards could vote the Tories are looking very good…. At this point I think I see my main competitor as the Wildrose” says Horner. “My job is very clearly to persuade people that what we need is a softer gentler version of government in Alberta and not a government that wants to take us back 40 years which some elements of the Wildrose clearly do.”

Meanwhile in the riding of Calgary Glenmore PC candidate Linda Johnson is competing with Wildrose incumbent Paul Hinman. She admits her party is dealing with popularity problems it has never faced before but says the public engagement that obliges her to personally visit some 24000 doorsteps if she wants to win is a rush. She says the voters she encounters are concerned with leadership health education and are open to listening to everyone. They tell her this time they want to understand what each party stands for rather than cast any more votes on automatic pilot.

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